George Sarant

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Posts Tagged ‘change

FIFTY YEARS IN A FLASH

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The Beatles arrived in the US fifty years ago, as hard as that is to believe for those who were around at the time. The years seem to have flashed by progressively faster, as they inevitably do as we age. Somehow what seems like a long period of time just doesn’t feel like it. Curiously this is not because things have changed so much, but rather because they have changed so little. There is a surprising degree of continuity between now and then. For example, people still listen to the music of the Beatles, whereas in 1964 few people were still listening to the popular music of 1914. Where there is a virtually seamless connection between today and 1964 for most people in the West, the fifty years prior to that time are like a huge chasm of discontinuity. 

 

Consider the year 1914. Then, for the broad public everything was new, from electricity to movies, automobiles, airplanes, appliances, telephones, recordings, etc. Although most of these things originated in the late 19th century, they did not reach most people until costs tumbled due to mass production early in the 20th century. In contrast, apart from the Internet, medical devices, and electronics generally, there is not much in the way of things with comparable fundamental impact on daily life over the past fifty years. Thus, a person from 1964 could fit in comfortably in 2014  (apart from wondering where all the space travel and robots are), whereas a person from 1914 encountering the world of 1964 would be flabbergasted.  

 In geopolitical terms 1914 was the apex of the civilization of the19th century and the old order of Europe, which disastrously exploded into war in August of that year. Thus began, one hundred years ago, the biggest disaster in modern western history, subsequently referred to as “the Great War,” or World War I as we now call it today. There was worse to come, but most of what followed was a consequence of that war. Had it not happened the map of the world would be very different today, and more dynamic powers would still exist in Europe. Today it is hard to imagine countries sending off millions of their young men to war, largely as cannon fodder, ultimately all for nothing. It is equally hard to imagine European countries gripped by patriotic fervor and clamoring for war as some did at the time. The United States only entered the war three years after it began, so military deaths of 116,516 were far less than the 416,800 in World War II. But for European countries in the west the losses were almost incomprehensible. Thus the Great War still resonates in Britain, which lost 908,371 versus 303,800 in World War II or France, which lost 1,357,800 soldiers in WWI versus 200,000 in World War II. On the other side Germany lost 1,773,700, Austria-Hungary 1,200,00 and all of these are only battlefield death. Total casualties were several times more. In the east Russia lost 1,700,000 before leaving the war after the 1917 revolution.

The German, Austro-Hungarian, and Ottoman empire, (which controlled much of the middle east at the time), all collapsed as a result of the war, followed by years of turmoil that led directly to WWII and the further consequences of that war. An imperial civilization vanished, and in some ways Europe has yet to fully recover from what began in August 1914.

Clearly most of the seminal events occurred in the first half of the 20th century. The years between 1914 and 1964 constituted a period of great discontinuity, in contrast to the curious continuity between 1964 and 2014. Although we have been led to believe that we live in a time of rapid change, the truth is things haven’t changed all that much, and that is why the years seem, even more so, to have gone by in a flash. As the saying goes, “the more things change the more they stay the same.”

 

 

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Written by georgesarant

February 23, 2014 at 7:29 PM

THE MOON AND THE PACE OF CHANGE

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It is hard to believe that forty years have passed since we first landed on the moon. It was probably the most memorable public moment ever for those of us around at the time. What is harder to believe is that nearly 40 years have gone by without any follow-up to this awesome accomplishment. That has to be considered one of the greatest failures of our time. In those days it would be hard to believe that four decades later we have not gone back to the moon or made all that much progress in manned space flight. The next mission at it’s earliest will be in 2020 based upon current plans, or eleven years from now. Considering that it took less than eight years from Kennedy’s announcement to the Apollo landing you have to wonder how we have become so timid, if not inept at achieving great projects.

We are often told we are living in “fast” times; that is that change is far more rapid than in the past. This is an illusion. Look at the world back forty years from 1969. 1929 would put you back in the Lindbergh era. Certainly the world of 1969 was far more different from the world of 1929 than the world in 2009 is from 1969 at least in technological terms, leaving aside computer processing. But change was otherwise far more radical between 1929 and 1969.

Hopefully something will happen to spur space development further. We need goals that lift the imagination and spirit.

Written by georgesarant

July 21, 2009 at 5:35 PM

Posted in Technology

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